风水轮流转，Intel 将再次领先 TSMC？
今天，TSMC 宣布 N2 延期至 H2 2025 量产，2026 年上市
Keeping in mind that TSMC’s FinFET-based N3 will have to stay competitive against GAA-based Samsung’s 3GAP and 2GAE/2GAP in 2023 ~ 2025 and Intel’s 20A (RibbonFET + PowerVia) in 2024 and 18A (High-NA EUV) in 2025, TSMC’s engineers will have to be quite creative with their N3 enhancements.
Evidently, TSMC’s brand-new process development and ramp up cadence has increased to two-and-a-half years with N3 and will increase to three years with N2, which may be considered as a major slowdown by its key customers.
半年前，其对 N2 具体出货时间闪烁其辞
https://www.anandtech.com/show/17013/tsmc-update-3nm-in-q1-2023-3nm-enhanced-in-2024-2nm-in-2025
But as N2 gets closer, TSMC is slowly locking down some additional details. Particularly, the company is now formally confirming that the N2 node is scheduled for 2025. Though they are not elaborating on whether this means HVM in 2025, or shipments in 2025.
而 Intel 在十几天前宣布 Intel 20A 量产提前半年至 H1 2024，Intel 18A 量产提前一年至 H2 2024
According to Intel, 18A development has been moving so well that the company’s R&D operations are now on or ahead of all of their development milestones, giving the company confidence that they can begin manufacturing products based on the process node in late 2024, instead of 2025 as first planned.
结合之前的消息，高通宣布将采用 Intel 20A 工艺
Qualcomm is excited about the breakthrough RibbonFET and PowerVia technologies coming in Intel 20A. We’re also pleased to have another leading-edge foundry partner enabled by IFS that will help the U.S. fabless industry to bring its products to an onshore manufacturing site.
-Cristiano Amon, President and CEO, Qualcomm
这回 Intel 真的咸鱼翻身了吗？
N3 和 N4P 工艺 2023 年才开始量产，因此 iPhone 14 系列只能用 N5P 和 N4 工艺，而 N4 工艺相比 N5P 又没有明显提升，因此苹果 A16 选择 N5P 是比较合理的。
A16 在性能和省电方面的提升应该是有限的。苹果将 iPhone 14 Pro 的芯片命名为 A16 更多是出于营销目的。
(1/4)
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) May 29, 2022
According to TSMC's public announcements & the roadmap (source: https://t.co/EgzC8D1Wys):
1. Significantly better N3 & N4P won't start mass production until 2023.
2. N5P & N4 are the latest technologies Apple can use for 2H22 products.
3. N4 has no advantages vs. N5P. https://t.co/k3OCX5EqjJ pic.twitter.com/kmzQEyxRkN
(2/4)
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) May 29, 2022
A15 is made by TSMC N5P. Because N4 has no advantages vs. N5P, it's reasonable for A16 to stick with the N5P, implying that improvements in performance and power-saving from A16 should be limited. Naming iPhone 14 Pro's chip as A16 is more of a marketing purpose.
(3/4)
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) May 29, 2022
All-new design MacBook Air's CPU encounters the same technical limitations as A16. But I think it's another case. All-new design is already a big selling point for new MBA. Leaving much-anticipated M2 series debut to next 14"/16" MBP may contribute more to Apple.
(4/4)
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) May 29, 2022
There is nothing bad with naming a minor-upgrade CPU of all-new design MBA as M2, which can also help new MBA sales. But if M2 series aims to bring great upgrades vs. M1 series and further enhance Apple Silicon's brand image, using 2023 N3/N4P wafer for M2 is better.
